How It Works

Our work is derived from the Earth System Models (ESM) created by several institutions, which were compiled by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Since the resolutions of ESMs lack the fine scale resolution needed to study the climate of Sabah at the local level, we use downscaled versions of these ESMs provided by institutions such as the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, NASA, and the SEACLID project. The data or ‘climate indices’ that comes from these models are then used to calculate and project future climatic conditions for Sabah.

Earth Systems Model

Earth System Models (ESMs) are mathematical representations of the atmosphere, oceans, land, ice, and energy systems, including their interactions. These models are used to project potential changes in Earth’s climate under various future scenarios. By integrating historical and current data with these scenarios, ESMs provide crucial insights into future climate patterns and their potential impacts on the environment and human livelihoods.

Downscaling

The raw data of Earth System Models does not have the fine resolution required to assess local climate impacts. For the ESMs to be useful for study in Sabah, a downscaled version of the data is used. ESMs can be downscaled in two methods; statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling.

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling

Dynamical Downscaling

Climate Impact/Extreme Indices

Climate Impact/Extreme Indices

Humid heat stress climate extreme indices across five Earth System Models for +2.5°C warming projection

Climate extreme indices are metrics and measurements that measure how often or how severe extreme weather events are in a given place. These indices are based on specific thresholds (like unusually hot days or heavy rainfall) and help scientists track trends, predict future risks, and prepare for the impacts of extreme weather, especially in the context of climate change.

In contrast, climate impact indices measure the real-world effects of climate change and extreme weather events on things like agriculture, water resources, human health, ecosystems, and the economy. They help us understand how climate change is affecting people's lives and the environment, and they provide crucial information for planning and adapting to future climate risks.

In simple terms, climate extreme indices will tell you how hot it gets in a region, while climate impact indices will tell you how that heat is affecting crop yield, human health, or water supply in that region.

Terrestrial Layers

Marine Layers

Sea Level Rise & Storm Surges Layers

Fire Risk Layers

Terrestrial Layers

Marine Layers

Sea Level Rise & Storm Surges Layers

Fire Risk Layers

Terrestrial Layers

Marine Layers

Sea Level Rise & Storm Surges Layers

Fire Risk Layers

Terrestrial Layers

Marine Layers

Sea Level Rise & Storm Surges Layers

Fire Risk Layers

Terrestrial Layers

Marine Layers

Sea Level Rise & Storm Surges Layers

Fire Risk Layers

Ensembled Projection

An ensemble projection involves combining the predictions of several ESMs into one model. As each ESM may interpret different climatic conditions differently, combining multiple models into one model provides a more balanced and reliable projection of future climate changes.