Coastal Flooding
This data represents coastal flooding as caused by sea level rise and storm surges from extreme weather events. As sea level rises and extreme weather events become more frequent/powerful, coastal areas and communities are in greater danger from flooding. Coastal flooding also brings in the risk of saline intrusion, which can contaminate agricultural lands and underground water sources with salt.
Coastal Flooding at End of Century
Projections are for 2021-2050 average under +5°C warming scenario
Current sea level - Left image
Coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surges at Return Period 50 years - Right image
Return period refers to the severity of the storm. So return period 50 would mean a once-every-50-years storm.
Many coastal communities of Sabah will come under risk of property damage and displacement. Agricultural communities like Kota Belud will suffer saltwater contamination of their farmlands, while communities that rely on groundwater such as Sebatik Island will suffer saltwater intrusion of their underground aquifers.
This projection is based on the RCP8.5 scenario (roughly 4.8°C warming by 2100), as this was the only publicly available data..
Data layer download: Coastal Inundation
Research source: Scoccimarro et al. (2022), Haarsma et al. (2020), Met Office, Deltares
Rubber Latex Yield
Rubber latex yield is negatively affected by rising temperatures. From 22 °C onwards, the yield of latex will start decreasing as latex flow is disrupted by the increasing respiration of the rubber trees due to increasing temperatures.
As temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, it will continue to influence the decline in rubber latex yields across Sabah.
Rubber Latex Yield at End of Century
Projections for 2071-2100 average
Scenario at +2.5°C warming (2071-2100)
The projections only cover rubber latex yield decline as affected by temperature pressures. It does not take into account other factors that can lead to rubber latex yield declines such as due to root rot disease and destruction of plantations by forest fires.
When taken to the influence of temperatures on yield declines alone, the lowlands of Sabah can suffer as much as 10-14% decrease in yields. This can lead to economic losses, with smaller smallholders feeling the effects more.
Data layer download: Rubber Latex Reduction
Research source: Ali et al. 2020
Effects on rice cultivation
Rice is a staple diet in Sabah, grown in both the highlands and lowlands. With climate change, a multitude of climate impacts will negatively affect the cultivation of rice and the health of the rice farmers in the state.
Changing weather patterns may alter when the raining seasons occur (if it occurs at all). Rising temperatures will increase the humid heat stress on farmers, decreasing their health and productivity. Coastal flooding may contaminate rice paddies with salt water.
Rice Yield at End of Century
Projections for 2071-2100 average
Scenario at +2.5°C warming (2071-2100)
The above projection shows the percentage change in rice yield as influenced by temperatures only. For every 1°C rise in mean monthly growing season temperature above 25.5°C, rice yield decreases by 16.6%.
Across Sabah, especially in the lowlands, rising temperatures can result in as much as a 10% to 30% decrease in rice yields. The highlands of Sabah for the most part is unaffected by a rise in temperature on rice yield declines.
As Sabah is only about 22% self-sufficient in rice (2) with most of the rice in the state relying on exports, a decrease in yields will further stress the food security of Sabah.
Humid Heat Stress in Kota Belud Paddies
Current Situation
Scenario at +2.5°C warming (2071-2100)
Besides impacting rice yields directly, rising temperatures will also impact how long farmers are able to work in the paddy fields. Such an example can already be seen in Kampung Wangkod, where the rice farmers are forced to stop working before noon due to high midday temperatures. The projection above shows Kota Belud’s rice paddies overlaid with a humid heat stress map.
Coastal Inundation in Kota Belud Paddies
Scenario at +4.8°C warming (2021-2050)
Coastal inundation is also another factor that can cause a decrease in rice yield. As rising sea levels and stronger storm surges bring salt water into farmlands more frequently, the ground and groundwater will be contaminated with salt. Such conditions are not favourable for rice production, hence decreasing yields. The projection above shows coastal inundation for Kota Belud overlaid with current rice paddy areas.
Data layer download: Rice Yield Reduction
Research source: Liu et al. (2020)
(2) Sabah's rice self-sufficiency ratio at 22.8pc, initiatives to improve production underway, New Straits Times, 12 March 2024
Fish Biomass
Fish biomass refers to the estimation of the total mass of fish within a given area. This metric is important in understanding the health and productivity of fish populations, and its maximum sustainable yield (amount of fish that can be harvested before a population crash).
Environmental pressures such as sea surface temperature changes, change in salinity, and change in oxygen levels will negatively affect fish biomass.
Percentage change in biomass of small pelagic fishes
From baseline period of 1996-2005
Small Pelagic Biomass %change at +2.5°C warming (2041-2050)
Small Pelagic Biomass %change at +2.5°C warming (2089-2098)
The maps show the maximum sustainable yield (MYS) of the fish populations, as represented by fish biomass, around Sabah’s territorial waters and EEZ under the assumption of no fishing pressures (ie. only climatic forces acting on the populations). From a baseline of 2000-2009, it can be seen that climatic forces will cause a decrease in fish biomass around Sabah, indicating a lowered MYS and heightened risk of a population crash. Certain areas in the projections -further from the coast and in small pockets- show an increase in fish biomass, indicating a higher MSY and where the fishes may migrate to.
These projections indicate that artisanal fishermen may struggle to catch a yield that is sustainable for their livelihoods, as they may be required to venture out further into the sea where the fish population is more sustainable and plentiful. These fishermen may encounter fierce competition to harvest the fishes in these remaining pockets, and put further strain on the maximum sustainable yield of the fish population.
Data layer download: Fish Biomass
Research source: Sailley (2021)
Heat Stress on Livestock
Heat stress in livestock occurs when animals are exposed to high temperatures and humidity levels, which interfere with their ability to regulate body temperature. This condition can have severe effects on livestock health, productivity (eg. low egg production, low milk production, and poor meat quality), overall well-being, and death in extreme cases. This can also result in economic losses due to livestock maintenance (frequent medical treatment and energy demand for cooling) and low productivity.
To help smallholders and the livestock industry adapt to heat stress in animals, we have developed Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) layers tailored for poultry and ruminants. In the case of poultry, the THI layers we have developed are further divided into broiler chickens and egg-laying chickens.
When chickens are heat stressed, they will have difficulty regulating their body heat production and body heat loss. Besides low egg production, heat stress on poultry can result in fatigue, weakened immune system, low quality eggs, and even death.
Heat Stress on Egg Laying Chickens
Projections are for 2071-2100 average
Current situation - Left image
Scenario at +2.5°C warming (2071-2100) - Right image
