Fire Risk
Forest fires have a wide range of negative impacts, from environmental impacts (loss of biodiversity and decrease in air quality), to social impacts (displacement and health issues), to economical impacts (loss of plantations, loss of agricultural lands, and property damage).
Fire Risk at End of Century
Projections are for 2071-2100 average
Current Situation - Left image
Current Situation - Left image
Scenario at +2.5°C warming (2071-2100)- Right image
The fire risk model in this data takes into account population, road distribution, forest type, slope and elevation, and rainfall. Forests close to population centres, in drier areas, or have high organic matter are at higher risk of burning. Climate change may push some of the variables, such as a decrease in rainfall, to amplify the risk of forest fires.
Historical (1981 - 2010) - Left image
Scenario at +2.5°C warming (2071-2100)- Right image
Change in Marine Environment
The oceans play a crucial role in regulating the Earth's climate and supporting marine life, but they are increasingly stressed due to rising temperatures and increased atmospheric CO₂. Any changes to the marine environment, such as through its sea surface temperature, salinity, acidity, and dissolved oxygen content can have major consequences to marine life and to the regulation of our weather.
Building on projections developed by Kay (2021), we have repackaged several marine layers for the waters around Sabah. These layers cover physico-chemical variables such as sea surface temperature, sea salinity, sea pH, and dissolved oxygen.
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST) refers to the temperature of the top layer of the ocean. Weather patterns and marine life are affected by SST and are very sensitive to any changes in it. A rise in SST can disrupt the distribution and behaviour of fish and other marine life, as well as influence the frequency of extreme weather events such as typhoons, rainfall, and the El Niño phenomenon.
Based on the projections, it could be seen that the SST around Sabah (and the seas in Southeast Asia in general) will steadily increase over the course of the century, with Sabah waters experiencing temperatures up to an excess of 30°C by the end of the century. The warming is more pronounced near the coastline, which may result in fish populations moving further away from the coasts to migrate to cooler waters. This may result in fishermen being forced to venture further into the open sea to catch fish. The warmer waters around Sabah may also result in stronger and more frequent extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoons hitting Sabah, causing widespread humanitarian and economic damage.
Changes in Sea Salinity
Changes in sea salinity refers to the variation in the amount of salt in the seas and oceans. Sea salinity is crucial in regulating heat in the oceans. Marine life is very sensitive to changes in sea salinity, and may become stressed if the salinity changes which will affect their survival and reproduction. Weather and climate patterns are also affected by sea salinity to due a change in salinity disrupting the circulation of heat in the oceans. In the projections, the sea salinity around Sabah’s waters may decrease by as much as 3-5%.
Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification (change in sea pH) refers to the process by which the ocean becomes more acidic due to an increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels in the atmosphere, which then dissolves in seawater. This process severely disrupts marine ecosystems, as organisms such as corals and shellfish have difficulty forming or maintaining their shells, making them more vulnerable to predation and environmental stress.
Changes in Dissolved Oxygen
Dissolved oxygen (DO) in the oceans refers to the amount of oxygen available in seawater for marine organisms to breathe. It is a critical factor for the survival of many marine species, from fish to microorganisms. However, rising sea temperatures will decrease the dissolved oxygen content of the oceans, as warm oceans hold less dissolved oxygen. Low oxygen levels can lead to fish kills, disrupt breeding, and cause shifts in species distribution. Large populations of marine life will be at risk of extinction, and the fish yield that is able to be caught by fishermen will decrease.
